Is Now the Right Time to Buy? A Look at Canada's 2026 Housing Market

Andrew Macrae • March 17, 2026

A Deep Dive into the 2026 Canadian Real Estate Landscape

For many Canadians, the dream of homeownership has felt like a moving target. After years of market volatility, shifting interest rates, and economic uncertainty, you might be wondering: is 2026 finally the year to make a move?

It's the biggest financial question for many households, and the answer isn't a simple yes or no. It depends on your personal circumstances, financial readiness, and where you are in the country. Let's break down the key factors shaping Canada's 2026 housing market so you can decide if now is the right time for you.

The National Picture: A Market in Transition

After a period of correction, Canada's housing market is showing signs of a gradual recovery, but it's not the frenzied pace we saw during the pandemic. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 5.1% increase in home sales in 2026, driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

However, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) notes that sales will likely remain below historical averages, with the market facing headwinds from a slower economy, modest income growth, and elevated unemployment levels.

What to Expect in 2026

  • National Home Sales: Recovery is underway with a 5.1% increase expected, driven by pent-up demand. However, sales will still remain below historical highs as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on buyer confidence.
  • National Average Price: Prices are forecast to rise modestly by 2.8% to $698,881. This represents steady, sustainable growth rather than the sharp spikes we saw during the pandemic years.
  • New Construction: Housing starts are projected to decline as developers face high construction costs, weaker demand, and rising inventories of unsold units. Fewer new homes being built could put upward pressure on prices in the long term.
  • Mortgage Rates: Variable rates are holding steady while fixed rates remain uncertain. The current rate environment offers some stability, but affordability continues to be a key challenge for many buyers.

Interest Rates: The Elephant in the Room

Mortgage rates have been a major factor for homebuyers. The good news is that the Bank of Canada has held its policy interest rate at 2.25% in early 2026, providing some stability for variable-rate mortgages. However, fixed rates may still see some upward pressure.

Many homeowners who secured ultra-low rates during the pandemic are now facing renewals at higher rates, which is tightening household budgets. For new buyers, the current rate environment is a significant improvement from the highs of 2024, but affordability remains a key challenge.

Regional Deep Dive: Where Are the Opportunities?

Canada's housing market is not a monolith. The story is very different depending on where you live.

Ontario & British Columbia: The Rebound

These two provinces, which saw the most significant downturns, are now poised for the strongest rebounds. CREA projects sales to increase by over 8% in both Ontario and BC in 2026. This is largely driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting for prices to stabilize.

However, the CMHC warns that housing starts in Ontario are projected to fall to near two-decade lows, which could put upward pressure on prices in the long run.

The Prairies & Quebec: Steady and Affordable

Markets in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec have remained more stable and are expected to see continued growth, albeit at a more moderate pace. Alberta, in particular, stands out for its relative affordability, with prices well below the national average.

The First-Time Homebuyer Opportunity

If you're a first-time homebuyer, 2026 could present a unique window of opportunity. After years of being priced out, many are finding that the combination of lower prices and stabilized interest rates has brought homeownership back within reach.

Furthermore, the government has introduced several programs to help first-time buyers, including:

  • First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST Rebate: A new rebate designed to help you recover some of the taxes paid on a new home.
  • Home Buyers' Plan (HBP): The withdrawal limit from your RRSP has been increased to $60,000, giving you more flexibility to fund your down payment.
  • First Home Savings Account (FHSA): A powerful savings tool that allows you to save for a down payment tax-free, helping you build your nest egg faster.

So, Is It Your Time to Buy?

While the market is showing positive signs, the decision to buy a home is deeply personal. Here are a few questions to ask yourself:

  • Is my income stable and secure? Job security is crucial when taking on a mortgage commitment that could last decades.
  • Have I saved a sufficient down payment? A larger down payment not only reduces your mortgage but can also help you avoid costly mortgage insurance.
  • Is my credit score in good shape? Your credit score directly impacts the mortgage rates you'll qualify for and could save you thousands over the life of your loan.
  • Am I prepared for the long-term costs of homeownership? Beyond the mortgage, you'll need to budget for property taxes, maintenance, insurance, and unexpected repairs.

Navigating the housing market can be complex, but you don't have to do it alone. A trusted mortgage professional can help you understand your options, get pre-approved, and determine if now is the right time for you to enter the market.

Ready to explore your options? Let's talk. I can help you make sense of the market and find a mortgage solution that fits your life and your goals.

Recent Articles

Collateral vs. Standard Mortgage: Pros and Cons Explained

By Andrew Macrae • March 5, 2026
Mortgage Registration 101: What You Need to Know About Standard vs. Collateral Charges When you’re setting up a mortgage, it’s easy to focus on the rate and monthly payment—but what about how your mortgage is registered? Most borrowers don’t realize this, but there are two common ways your lender can register your mortgage: as a standard charge or a collateral charge . And that choice can affect your flexibility, future borrowing power, and even your ability to switch lenders. Let’s break down what each option means—without the legal jargon. What Is a Standard Charge Mortgage? Think of this as the “traditional” mortgage. With a standard charge, your lender registers exactly what you’ve borrowed on the property title. Nothing more. Nothing hidden. Just the principal amount of your mortgage. Here’s why that matters: When your mortgage term is up, you can usually switch to another lender easily —often without legal fees, as long as your terms stay the same. If you want to borrow more money down the line (for example, for renovations or debt consolidation), you’ll need to requalify and break your current mortgage , which can come with penalties and legal costs. It’s straightforward, transparent, and offers more freedom to shop around at renewal time. What Is a Collateral Charge Mortgage? This is a more flexible—but also more complex—type of mortgage registration. Instead of registering just the amount you borrow, a collateral charge mortgage registers for a higher amount , often up to 100%–125% of your home’s value . Why? To allow you to borrow additional funds in the future without redoing your mortgage. Here’s the upside: If your home’s value goes up or you need access to funds, a collateral charge mortgage may let you re-borrow more easily (if you qualify). It can bundle other credit products—like a line of credit or personal loan—into one master agreement. But there are trade-offs: You can’t switch lenders at renewal without hiring a lawyer and paying legal fees to discharge the mortgage. It may limit your ability to get a second mortgage with another lender because the original lender is registered for a higher amount than you actually owe. Which One Should You Choose? The answer depends on what matters more to you: flexibility in future borrowing , or freedom to shop around for better rates at renewal. Why Talk to a Mortgage Broker? This kind of decision shouldn’t be made by default—or by what a single lender offers. An independent mortgage professional can help you: Understand how your mortgage is registered (most people never ask!) Compare lenders that offer both options Make sure your mortgage aligns with your future goals—not just today’s needs We look at your full financial picture and explain the fine print so you can move forward with confidence—not surprises. Have questions? Let’s talk. Whether you’re renewing, refinancing, or buying for the first time, I’m here to help you make smart, informed choices about your mortgage. No pressure—just answers.

Home Reno Dreams? Let’s Talk Mortgage Financing

By Andrew Macrae • February 19, 2026
How to Use Your Mortgage to Finance Home Renovations Home renovations can be exciting—but they can also be expensive. Whether you're upgrading your kitchen, finishing the basement, or tackling a much-needed repair, the cost of materials and labour adds up quickly. If you don’t have all the cash on hand, don’t worry. There are smart ways to use mortgage financing to fund your renovation plans without derailing your financial stability. Here are three mortgage-related strategies that can help: 1. Refinancing Your Mortgage If you're already a homeowner, one of the most straightforward ways to access funds for renovations is through a mortgage refinance. This involves breaking your current mortgage and replacing it with a new one that includes the amount you need for your renovations. Key benefits: You can access up to 80% of your home’s appraised value , assuming you qualify. It may be possible to lower your interest rate or reduce your monthly payments. Timing tip: If your mortgage is up for renewal soon, refinancing at that time can help you avoid prepayment penalties. Even mid-term refinancing could make financial sense, depending on your existing rate and your renovation goals. 2. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) If you have significant equity in your home, a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) can offer flexible funding for renovations. A HELOC is a revolving credit line secured against your home, typically at a lower interest rate than unsecured borrowing. Why consider a HELOC? You only pay interest on the amount you use. You can access funds as needed, which is ideal for staged or ongoing renovations. You maintain the terms of your existing mortgage if you don’t want to refinance. Unlike a traditional loan, a HELOC allows you to borrow, repay, and borrow again—similar to how a credit card works, but with much lower rates. 3. Purchase Plus Improvements Mortgage If you're in the market for a new home and find a property that needs some work, a "Purchase Plus Improvements" mortgage could be a great option. This allows you to include renovation costs in your initial mortgage. How it works: The renovation funds are advanced based on a quote and are held in trust until the work is complete. The renovations must add value to the property and meet lender requirements. This type of mortgage lets you start with a home that might be more affordable upfront and customize it to your taste—all while building equity from day one. Final Thoughts Your home is likely your biggest investment, and upgrading it wisely can enhance both your comfort and its value. Mortgage financing can be a powerful tool to fund renovations without tapping into high-interest debt. The right solution depends on your unique financial situation, goals, and timing. Let’s chat about your options, run the numbers, and create a plan that works for you. 📞 Ready to renovate? Connect anytime to get started!

Mortgage Approval 101: GDS & TDS Explained

By Andrew Macrae • February 5, 2026
Can You Afford That Mortgage? Let’s Talk About Debt Service Ratios One of the biggest factors lenders look at when deciding whether you qualify for a mortgage is something called your debt service ratios. It’s a financial check-up to make sure you can handle the payments—not just for your new home, but for everything else you owe as well. If you’d rather skip the math and have someone walk through this with you, that’s what I’m here for. But if you like to understand how things work behind the scenes, keep reading. We’re going to break down what these ratios are, how to calculate them, and why they matter when it comes to getting approved. What Are Debt Service Ratios? Debt service ratios measure your ability to manage your financial obligations based on your income. There are two key ratios lenders care about: Gross Debt Service (GDS) This looks at the percentage of your income that would go toward housing expenses only. 2. Total Debt Service (TDS) This includes your housing costs plus all other debt payments-car loans, credit cards, student loans, support payments, etc. How to Calculate GDS and TDS Let’s break down the formulas. GDS Formula: (P + I + T + H + Condo Fees*) ÷ Gross Monthly Income Where: P = Principal I = Interest T = Property Taxes H = Heat Condo fees are usually calculated at 50% of the total amount TDS Formula: (GDS + Monthly Debt Payments) ÷ Gross Monthly Income These ratios tell lenders if your budget is already stretched too thin—or if you’ve got room to safely take on a mortgage. How High Is Too High? Most lenders follow maximum thresholds, especially for insured (high-ratio) mortgages. As of now, those limits are typically: GDS: Max 39% TDS: Max 44% Go above those numbers and your application could be declined, regardless of how confident you feel about your ability to manage the payments. Real-World Example Let’s say you’re earning $90,000 a year, or $7,500 a month. You find a home you love, and the monthly housing costs (mortgage payment, property tax, heat) total $1,700/month. GDS = $1,700 ÷ $7,500 = 22.7% You’re well under the 39% cap—so far, so good. Now factor in your other monthly obligations: Car loan: $300 Child support: $500 Credit card/line of credit payments: $700 Total other debt = $1,500/month Now add that to the $1,700 in housing costs: TDS = $3,200 ÷ $7,500 = 42.7% Uh oh. Even though your GDS looks great, your TDS is just over the 42% limit. That could put your mortgage approval at risk—even if you’re paying similar or higher rent now. What Can You Do? In cases like this, small adjustments can make a big difference: Consolidate or restructure your debts to lower monthly payments Reallocate part of your down payment to reduce high-interest debt Add a co-applicant to increase qualifying income Wait and build savings or credit strength before applying This is where working with an experienced mortgage professional pays off. We can look at your entire financial picture and help you make strategic moves to qualify confidently. Don’t Leave It to Chance Everyone’s situation is different, and debt service ratios aren’t something you want to guess at. The earlier you start the conversation, the more time you’ll have to improve your numbers and boost your chances of approval. If you're wondering how much home you can afford—or want help analyzing your own GDS and TDS—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk through your numbers and help you build a solid mortgage strategy.